DRAM Shortage will likely happen in 2H10
With the recovering PC shipment in 2009, DRAM shortage had accelerated since August and reach at the peak in October. Some PC-OEMs even spent US$5.50, 1Gb for US$3.25 equivalent, for DDR2/2GB module from module houses at spot market. Despite with the shortage ease in November and December, most PC-OEMs and PC-ODMs still indicate the strong shipment momentum while this situation resulted in the flat DRAM contract price during the periods.
According to DRAMeXchange, 2010 PC shipment YoY growth will be up to 13%.DT will merely grow 0.6%YoY to 120M units and 160M units for regular notebook with 22.5% YoY. Netbook will also grow 22% to 35M units as well. We DRAMeXchange expect that content per box growth rate will be up 16% to 2.92GB from 2.52GB in 2009 since 4GB is the standard spectrum for consumer models, 6GB for high level products and anticipated corporate replacement in 2H10. Also, we DRAMeXchange think DRAM will likely face serious shortage in 2H10 triggered by the hot PC sales and PC-OEMs may pull up the inventory level in 2Q09 to handle the shortage for 2H10. This situation will result in the warming up effect for slow season in 2Q10. DRAM price decline will likely be eased in 2Q10. That is, DRAM vendors will have great opportunity to remain profit for whole year.
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